FIRE Simulator


Starting investment:The initial total amount of invested savings
Annual contribution:How much is added every year
Percent bonds:Percent of savings in bonds (the rest is assumed to be in stocks)
Current age:
Retirement age:

About

This site runs a monte carlo simulation of investment returns by randomly sampling historical returns for the S&P 500 (with dividends reinvested), treasury yield (for bonds) and inflation rates. It runs 10,000 iterations to create distributions of possible future returns.

Alternative: Simulation that calculates expected number of years to achieve $X.

Caveats

  • Maximum annual stock returns are capped at 40% (to be more conservative)
  • Maximum annual inflation is capped at 15% (to avoid some very high historical years)
  • Minimum annual inflation is capped at 0.5%
  • Maximum bond returns are capped at 10% (to be more conservative)

Underlying Data Distributions (ingnoring caps)